It often seems that the experts get it wrong more often then the common man. In the beginning of 2008 only one third of economists predicted a coming recession. I a layman felt very strongly that a recession was coming in 2008 and was surprised that people who had spent years and years mastering economics could not see it coming.
According to this report
the IMF also had a poor track record at predicting recession despite their extremely well paid big brains.
Just another lesson that you need to learn to think for yourself and not overly or blindly trust experts.